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2018 California gubernatorial election

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See also: 2018 United States gubernatorial elections

2018 California gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 6, 2018 2021 (recall) →
Turnout63.28% (Increase32.34 pp)
 
Candidate Gavin Newsom John H. Cox
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 7,721,410 4,742,825
Percentage 61.95% 38.05%
Newsom:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Cox:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Jerry Brown
Democratic

Elected Governor

Gavin Newsom
Democratic

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The 2018 California gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of California, concurrently with elections for the rest of California's executive branch, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic governor Jerry Brown was ineligible to run for re-election for a third consecutive (and fifth non-consecutive) term due to term limits from the Constitution of California. The race was between the incumbent Democratic lieutenant governor Gavin Newsom and businessman John H. Cox, a Republican, who qualified for the general election after placing first and second in the June 5, 2018, primary election.

Newsom won in a landslide, with 62% of the vote, the biggest victory in a gubernatorial race in California since Earl Warren won re-election in 1950, and the biggest victory for a non-incumbent since 1930; Newsom received almost eight million votes.[1] The election also marked the first time Orange County had voted for the Democratic candidate since Jerry Brown won it in 1978, and the first time Democrats won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in the state's history. Newsom was sworn in on January 7, 2019.

Candidates

[edit]

A primary election was held on June 5, 2018. Under California's non-partisan blanket primary law, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party. Voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two finishers – regardless of party – advance to the general election in November, regardless of whether a candidate manages to receive a majority of the votes cast in the primary election.

Democratic Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Republican Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Green Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Christopher Carlson, puppeteer[4]
  • Veronika Fimbres (write-in)[36]
  • Josh Jones, author, geologist, solar electric designer[4]

Peace and Freedom Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Independent (No Party)

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ American Solidarity Party does not have ballot access. Desmond Silveira (ASP) appears on ballot as "No party preference".[60]

Primary election

[edit]

From the later half of 2017, Lieutenant governor Gavin Newsom was widely seen as the favored front runner for the top two primary. Businessman John Cox and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa had both been running closely behind Newsom to obtain the second place spot. However soon in late 2017, as more prominent Democrats entered the race, Villaraigosa saw his polling numbers slip out of competition with Cox by the start of 2018. This had mainly left the race between Newsom and Cox, with a third place free for all between Allen and Villaraigosa.

Endorsements

[edit]
Travis Allen (R)
U.S. representatives
State-level officials
Notable individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
  • California Republican Assembly[69]
John Chiang (D)
Federal elected officials
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Organizations
Individuals
Delaine Eastin (D)
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Organizations
Josh Jones (G)
Individuals
Desmond Silveira (ASP)
Notable individuals
Organizations
Antonio Villaraigosa (D)
U.S. representatives
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Organizations
Individuals
Nickolas Wildstar (L)
Individuals
Organizations
Zoltan Istvan (L)
Notable individuals and organizations

Polling

[edit]
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Travis
Allen
(R) 		John
Chiang
(D) 		John
Cox
(R) 		Delaine
Eastin
(D) 		Gavin
Newsom
(D) 		Antonio
Villaraigosa
(D) 		Other /
Undecided
Competitive Edge Research & Communication Archived 2020-09-10 at the Wayback Machine May 29–30, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 10% 4% 23% 5% 31% 13% 15%[a]
UC Berkeley May 22−28, 2018 2,106 ± 3.5% 12% 7% 20% 4% 33% 13% 11%[b]
Emerson College Archived 2018-06-07 at the Wayback Machine May 21–24, 2018 600 ± 4.2% 11% 10% 16% 4% 24% 12% 23%[c]
YouGov Archived 2018-06-01 at the Wayback Machine May 12–24, 2018 1,113 ± 4.0% 10% 8% 17% 4% 33% 9% 16%[d]
Competitive Edge Research & Communication Archived 2018-05-25 at the Wayback Machine May 20–22, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 9% 7% 22% 8% 26% 12% 17%[e]
SurveyUSA May 21, 2018 678 ± 6.1% 12% 10% 17% 2% 33% 8% 16%[f]
Public Policy Institute of California May 11–20, 2018 901 ± 4.1% 11% 9% 19% 6% 25% 15% 16%[g]
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times April 18 – May 18, 2018 517 ± 4.0% 5% 6% 10% 3% 21% 11% 43%[h]
Gravis Marketing May 4–5, 2018 525 ± 4.3% 8% 9% 23% 4% 22% 19% 15%[i]
SmithJohnson Research (R-Cox) April 26–27, 2018 533 ± 4.2% 13% 4% 20% 4% 36% 8% 16%[j]
SurveyUSA April 19–23, 2018 520 ± 5.5% 10% 9% 15% 1% 21% 18% 25%[k]
UC Berkeley April 16−22, 2018 1,738 ± 3.5% 16% 7% 18% 4% 30% 9% 16%[l]
J. Wallin Opinion Research/Tulchin Research March 30 – April 4, 2018 800 ± 3.7% 9% 9% 16% 5% 26% 7% 28%[m]
Public Policy Institute of California March 25 – April 3, 2018 867 ± 4.4% 10% 7% 15% 6% 26% 13% 23%[n]
SurveyUSA March 22–25, 2018 517 ± 5.0% 7% 9% 11% 3% 22% 14% 34%[o]
David Binder Research (D-Newsom) March 16–21, 2018 1,750 – 13% 9% 16% 2% 29% 7% 24%[p]
Public Policy Institute of California March 7–13, 2018 1,706 ± 3.4% 10% 6% 14% 5% 28% 12% 25%[q]
David Binder Research (D-Newsom) Archived 2018-03-24 at the Wayback Machine March 1–5, 2018 1,000 – 10% 13% 16% 7% 26% 12% 16%[r]
David Binder Research (D-Newsom) January 31 – February 4, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 4% 11% 7% 4% 30% 11% 33%[s]
Global Strategy Group (D-Chiang) January 27 – February 1, 2018 500 – 7% 10% 10% 5% 28% 14% 3%[t]
Public Policy Institute of California January 21–30, 2018 1,705 ± 3.2% 8% 9% 7% 4% 23% 21% 28%[u]
Tulchin Research/Moore Information Archived 2018-02-06 at the Wayback Machine January 21–28, 2018 2,500 ± 2.0% 8% 9% 10% 6% 29% 11% 26%[v]
SurveyUSA January 7–9, 2018 506 ± 4.4% 9% 5% 4% 1% 19% 10% 53%[w]
UC Berkeley December 7–16, 2017 672 ± 3.8% 9% 5% 9% 5% 26% 17% 29%[x]
Public Policy Institute of California November 10–19, 2017 1,070 ± 4.3% 6% 9% 9% 3% 23% 18% 31%[y]
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times October 27 – November 6, 2017 1,070[z] ± 4.0% 15% 12% 11% 4% 31% 21% 6%[aa]
UC Berkeley August 27 – September 5, 2017 1,000 ± 4.0% 9% 7% 11% 4% 26% 10% 33%[ab]
SmithJohnson Research (R-Cox) July 27–30, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 10% 7% 14% 3% 25% 12% 28%[m]
GSSR (D-Chiang) May 30 – June 5, 2017 602 – – 10% 11% – 26% 12% –
UC Berkeley May 4–29, 2017 1,628 ± 3.3% – 5% 9% 3% 22% 17% 44%[ac]
The Feldman Group (D-Villaraigosa) March 2017 – – – – 22% – 26% 20% –
Notes
  1. ^ Other 5%, Undecided 10%
  2. ^ Other 4%, Undecided 7%
  3. ^ Other 4%, Undecided 19%
  4. ^ Amanda Renteria (D), Robert C. Newman (R), Shubham Goel (NPP) with 1%, all other candidates 0%, Undecided 13%
  5. ^ Other 4%, Undecided 13%
  6. ^ Thomas Jefferson Cares (D), Robert C. Newman (R), Klement Tinaj (D) with 1%; Akinyemi Agbede (D), Juan Bribiesca (D), Christopher Carlson (G), Yvonne Girard (R), Shubham Goel (NPP), Robert Davidson Griffis (D), Zoltan Istvan (L), Josh Jones (G), Gloria La Riva (PFP), Peter Yuan Liu (R), Albert Caesar Mezzetti (D), Hakan "Hawk" Mikado (NPP), Amanda Renteria (D), Michael Shellenberger (D), Desmond Silveira (ASP), Jeffrey Edward Taylor (NPP), Johnny Wattenburg (NPP), and Nickolas Wildstar (L) with 0%; Undecided with 13%
  7. ^ Other 1%, Undecided 16%
  8. ^ Akinyemi Agbede (D), Robert Davidson Griffis (D), Amanda Renteria (D), and Gloria La Riva (PFP) with 1%; Juan Bribiesca (D), Thomas Jefferson Cares (D), Albert Caesar Mezzetti (D), Michael Shellenberger (D), Klement Tinaj (D), Christopher Carlson (G), Josh Jones (G), Zoltan Istvan (L), Nickolas Wildstar (L), Yvonne Girard (R), Robert C. Newman (R), Shubham Goel (NPP), Hakan "Hawk" Mikado (NPP), Desmond Silveira (ASP), Jeffrey Edward Taylor (NPP), Johnny Wattenburg (NPP) with 0%; Other 0%; Not voting 0%; Undecided 39%
  9. ^ Albert Mezzetti (D) 2%, Undecided 13%
  10. ^ Amanda Renteria (D) 0%, Undecided 16%
  11. ^ Robert Newman (R) 4%, Amanda Renteria (D) 3%, Other 1%, Undecided 17%
  12. ^ Other 3%, Undecided 13%
  13. ^ a b Undecided 28%
  14. ^ Other 1%, Undecided 22%
  15. ^ Robert Newman (R) 3%; Yvonne Girard (R) and Robert Kleinberger* (NPP) with 2%; Daniel Amare* (R), Brian Domingo* (R), Peter Yuan Liu (R), Michael Bracamontes* (D), Juan Bribiesca (D), and Nickolas Wildstar (L) with 1%; Akinyemi Agbede (D), Zoltan Istvan (L), Josh Jones (G), Harmesh Kumar* (D), and James Tran* (NPP) with 0%; Other 0%l; Undecided 21%. *Withdrawn.
  16. ^ Amanda Renteria (D) 2%, Other 6%, Undecided 16%
  17. ^ Other 1%, Undecided 24%
  18. ^ Amanda Renteria (D) 4%, Undecided 12%
  19. ^ Doug Ose* (R) 4%, Other 29%. *Withdrawn.
  20. ^ Doug Ose* (R) 3%. *Withdrawn.
  21. ^ Doug Ose* (R) 3%, Someone else 1%, Undecided 24%. *Withdrawn.
  22. ^ Doug Ose* (R) 4%, Someone else 4%, Undecided 18%. *Withdrawn.
  23. ^ Robert Newman (R), Doug Ose* (R), Tom Steyer† (D), Peter Thiel† (R), and Steve Westly† (D) with 2%; Akinyemi Agbede (D), Daniel Amare* (R), Stasyi Barth* (R), Michael Bracamontes* (D), Juan Bribiesca (D), Brian Domingo* (R), Yvonne Girard (R), Zoltan Istvan (L), Josh Jones (G), Robert Kleinberger* (NPP), Harmesh Kumar* (D), Peter Yuan Liu (R), James Tran* (NPP), and Nickolas Wildstar (L) with 1%; Michael Bilger* (NPP), Andy Blanch* (NPP), Scooter Braun† (D), John-Leslie Brown* (R), David Bush* (NPP), Christopher Carlson (G), Peter Crawford-Valentino* (NPP), Ted Crisell* (D), Grant Handzlik* (NPP), Analila Joya* (NPP), Joshua Laine* (AIP), Chad Mayes† (R), Jacob Morris* (R), Timothy Richardson* (NPP), Boris Romanowsky* (NPP), Michael Shellenberger (D), H. Fuji Shioura* (NPP), Laura Smith* (R), Scot Sturtevant* (NPP), Ashley Swearengin† (R), Klement Tinaj (D), and Frédéric Prinz von Anhalt* (NPP) with 0%; Other with 29%. *Withdrawn. †Hypothetical candidate.
  24. ^ Other 1%, Undecided 28%
  25. ^ Other 1%, Undecided 30%
  26. ^ 1,070 likely primary voters out of 1,504. MoE out of 1,504: ± 3.0. 22% out of 1,504 not voting.
  27. ^ Other 6%
  28. ^ Undecided 33%
  29. ^ David Hadley* (R) 7%, Undecided 37%. *Withdrawn.
Hypothetical polling
with Kevin Faulconer and Eric Garcetti
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		John
Chiang
(D) 		John
Cox
(R) 		Kevin
Faulconer
(R) 		Eric
Garcetti
(D) 		Gavin
Newsom
(D) 		Tom
Steyer
(D) 		Ashley
Swearengin
(R) 		Antonio
Villaraigosa
(D) 		Other /
Undecided
UC Berkeley/YouGov March 13–20, 2017 1,000 ± 3.6% 6% 11% 11% 9% 24% 4% – 7% 25%[a]
Public Policy Polling January 17–18, 2017 882 ± 3.3% 2% – 20% 13% 25% 4% 12% 9% 16%[b]
Field Research Corporation October 25–31, 2016 600 – 2% – 16% 7% 23% 5% 11% 6% 30%[c]
Public Policy Polling February 6–8, 2015 824 – 10% – 30% 11% 22% – – 13% 26%[d]

Results

[edit]
county
Results by county:
  Newsom—60–70%
  Newsom—50–60%
  Newsom—40–50%
  Newsom—30–40%
  Newsom—20–30%
  Cox—20–30%
  Cox—30–40%
  Cox—40–50%
  Villaraigosa—30–40%
congressional district
Results by congressional district:
  Newsom—50–60%
  Newsom—40–50%
  Newsom—30–40%
  Newsom—20–30%
  Cox—20–30%
  Cox—30–40%
  Cox—40–50%
  Villaraigosa—20–30%
  Villaraigosa—30–40%
  Villaraigosa—40–50%
Non-partisan blanket primary results[131]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Gavin Newsom 2,343,792 33.7%
Republican John H. Cox 1,766,488 25.4%
Democratic Antonio Villaraigosa 926,394 13.3%
Republican Travis Allen 658,798 9.5%
Democratic John Chiang 655,920 9.4%
Democratic Delaine Eastin 234,869 3.4%
Democratic Amanda Renteria 93,446 1.3%
Republican Robert C. Newman II 44,674 0.6%
Democratic Michael Shellenberger 31,692 0.5%
Republican Peter Y. Liu 27,336 0.4%
Republican Yvonne Girard 21,840 0.3%
Peace and Freedom Gloria La Riva 19,075 0.3%
Democratic J. Bribiesca 18,586 0.3%
Green Josh Jones 16,131 0.2%
Libertarian Zoltan Istvan 14,462 0.2%
Democratic Albert Caesar Mezzetti 12,026 0.2%
Libertarian Nickolas Wildstar 11,566 0.2%
Democratic Robert Davidson Griffis 11,103 0.2%
Democratic Akinyemi Agbede 9,380 0.1%
Democratic Thomas Jefferson Cares 8,937 0.1%
Green Christopher N. Carlson 7,302 0.1%
Democratic Klement Tinaj 5,368 0.1%
No party preference Hakan "Hawk" Mikado 5,346 0.1%
No party preference Johnny Wattenburg 4,973 0.1%
No party preference Desmond Silveira 4,633 0.1%
No party preference Shubham Goel 4,020 0.1%
No party preference Jeffrey Edward Taylor 3,973 0.1%
Green Veronika Fimbres (write-in) 62 0.0%
No party preference Arman Soltani (write-in) 32 0.0%
No party preference Peter Crawford Valentino (write-in) 21 0.0%
Republican K. Pearce (write-in) 8 0.0%
No party preference Armando M. Arreola (write-in) 1 0.0%
Total votes 6,862,254 100%

Results by county

[edit]

Red represents counties won by Cox. Blue represents counties won by Newsom. Green represents counties won by Villaraigosa.[132]

County Newsom % Cox % Villaraigosa % Allen % Chiang % Others %
Alameda 53.5% 10.6% 10.0% 4.4% 9.6% 11.9%
Alpine 38.5% 24.1% 6.7% 8.7% 10.4% 11.6%
Amador 21.5% 41.8% 5.8% 15.1% 8.0% 7.8%
Butte 25.6% 34.4% 5.5% 14.5% 6.1% 13.9%
Calaveras 23.3% 38.2% 5.3% 18.1% 6.6% 8.5%
Colusa 13.0% 43.3% 16.0% 16.3% 3.6% 7.8%
Contra Costa 49.9% 19.7% 8.7% 7.4% 6.9% 7.4%
Del Norte 23.4% 27.0% 3.5% 24.8% 7.7% 13.6%
El Dorado 24.5% 40.7% 5.8% 13.9% 8.1% 7.0%
Fresno 16.8% 33.7% 20.2% 14.3% 7.6% 7.4%
Glenn 12.4% 48.1% 7.9% 18.2% 3.3% 10.1%
Humboldt 37.9% 22.3% 5.0% 9.6% 6.4% 18.8%
Imperial 11.8% 22.7% 31.2% 9.8% 7.9% 16.6%
Inyo 22.6% 30.7% 8.6% 15.9% 8.7% 13.5%
Kern 12.1% 40.6% 13.9% 19.9% 5.4% 8.1%
Kings 9.4% 36.7% 17.0% 23.8% 6.7% 6.4%
Lake 37.5% 28.4% 6.6% 12.0% 5.0% 10.5%
Lassen 13.1% 41.7% 2.1% 26.8% 6.6% 9.7%
Los Angeles 32.7% 19.6% 21.7% 5.8% 13.2% 7.0%
Madera 12.8% 40.2% 15.7% 18.9% 5.2% 7.2%
Marin 64.1% 12.5% 8.2% 3.8% 5.3% 6.1%
Mariposa 19.1% 34.9% 8.2% 23.4% 6.3% 8.1%
Mendocino 45.2% 17.9% 7.8% 9.1% 5.1% 14.9%
Merced 18.2% 29.7% 17.9% 16.0% 7.3% 10.8%
Modoc 11.4% 49.9% 3.0% 18.0% 3.1% 14.6%
Mono 31.6% 26.1% 12.2% 12.0% 5.0% 13.1%
Monterey 37.8% 19.8% 16.8% 9.4% 6.6% 9.6%
Napa 46.1% 19.4% 10.0% 9.7% 5.5% 9.3%
Nevada 34.1% 25.7% 5.9% 17.4% 7.0% 9.9%
Orange 24.3% 36.3% 11.4% 11.5% 9.0% 7.5%
Placer 25.7% 40.2% 5.8% 13.1% 9.0% 6.2%
Plumas 26.9% 38.5% 3.8% 15.5% 5.7% 9.6%
Riverside 22.3% 34.4% 13.7% 15.3% 7.5% 6.8%
Sacramento 29.7% 26.2% 10.7% 10.2% 14.5% 8.7%
San Benito 33.6% 23.4% 13.3% 16.0% 4.8% 8.9%
San Bernardino 19.7% 33.9% 15.2% 14.7% 9.2% 7.3%
San Diego 30.5% 32.6% 10.4% 7.5% 9.8% 9.2%
San Francisco 57.5% 6.6% 9.1% 2.2% 8.9% 15.7%
San Joaquin 26.3% 31.4% 11.1% 13.6% 9.3% 8.3%
San Luis Obispo 33.2% 29.4% 6.8% 14.6% 7.3% 8.7%
San Mateo 55.0% 13.9% 10.4% 5.1% 7.1% 8.5%
Santa Barbara 33.8% 26.2% 12.3% 11.5% 6.8% 9.4%
Santa Clara 48.5% 13.9% 10.9% 8.3% 7.7% 10.7%
Santa Cruz 52.4% 11.8% 11.5% 7.0% 4.5% 12.8%
Shasta 16.9% 44.3% 3.9% 19.9% 4.5% 10.5%
Sierra 22.9% 35.1% 3.7% 17.6% 7.1% 13.6%
Siskiyou 23.3% 34.5% 3.4% 18.5% 5.0% 15.3%
Solano 41.6% 23.3% 8.9% 11.3% 6.9% 8.0%
Sonoma 54.6% 16.4% 8.9% 5.5% 4.9% 9.7%
Stanislaus 23.2% 31.6% 12.3% 16.3% 7.3% 9.3%
Sutter 16.4% 40.0% 8.3% 17.4% 8.2% 9.7%
Tehama 13.2% 45.4% 4.5% 21.6% 4.7% 10.6%
Trinity 23.6% 31.4% 4.7% 17.9% 5.4% 17.0%
Tulare 13.9% 36.5% 16.4% 20.4% 5.2% 7.6%
Tuolumne 26.8% 37.6% 5.7% 15.8% 5.6% 8.5%
Ventura 26.7% 32.6% 13.4% 9.1% 11.0% 7.2%
Yolo 31.6% 19.9% 13.7% 7.0% 14.6% 13.2%
Yuba 16.3% 39.6% 7.6% 21.1% 6.6% 8.8%
Totals 33.6% 25.5% 13.3% 9.5% 9.5% 8.6%

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[133] Safe D October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[134] Likely D November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[135] Safe D November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[136] Safe D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[137] Safe D November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[138] Likely D November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[139] Safe D November 5, 2018
Fox News[140][e] Likely D November 5, 2018
Politico[141] Safe D November 5, 2018
Governing[142] Safe D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ Delaine Eastin (D) and Steve Westly with 2%, Undecided with 21%
  2. ^ Alex Padilla (D) 3%, Undecided 13%
  3. ^ Alex Padilla (D) 4%, Steve Westly (D) 1%, Undecided 25%
  4. ^ Alex Padilla (D) 4%, Undecided 22%
  5. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

[edit]
John H. Cox (R)
Federal officials
U.S. representatives
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Gavin Newsom (D)
Federal officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State-level officials
Local-level officials
Organizations
Individuals
Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Gavin
Newsom (D) 		John
Cox (R) 		None Other Undecided
Change Research[better source needed] November 2–4, 2018 1,108 – 53% 41% – – –
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 58% 38% – – 4%
SurveyUSA November 1–2, 2018 924 ± 4.6% 53% 38% – – 9%
Probolsky Research October 25–30, 2018 900 ± 3.3% 47% 37% – – 16%
Thomas Partners Strategies October 25–27, 2018 1,068 ± 3.5% 55% 42% – – 3%
Gravis Marketing October 25–26, 2018 743 ± 3.6% 55% 35% – – 9%
UC Berkeley October 19–25, 2018 1,339 ± 4.0% 58% 40% – – 2%
YouGov[permanent dead link] October 10–24, 2018 2,178 ± 3.1% 53% 34% 3% – 10%
Public Policy Institute of California October 12–21, 2018 989 ± 4.2% 49% 38% 2% – 10%
Thomas Partners Strategies October 18–20, 2018 1,068 ± 3.5% 54% 41% – – 5%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2018 671 ± 4.1% 52% 32% – – 16%
SurveyUSA October 12–14, 2018 762 ± 4.9% 52% 35% – – 14%
Thomas Partners Strategies October 12–14, 2018 1,068 ± 3.5% 51% 43% – – 6%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times September 17 – October 14, 2018 794 LV ± 4.0% 54% 31% – – 15%
980 RV ± 4.0% 51% 30% – – 19%
Thomas Partners Strategies October 5–7, 2018 1,068 ± 3.5% 54% 42% – – 4%
Thomas Partners Strategies September 28–30, 2018 1,068 ± 3.5% 50% 45% – – 5%
Thomas Partners Strategies September 21–23, 2018 1,068 ± 3.5% 53% 42% – – 5%
Vox Populi Polling September 16–18, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 60% 40% – – –
Public Policy Institute of California September 9–18, 2018 964 ± 4.8% 51% 39% 3% – 7%
Thomas Partners Strategies Archived 2018-09-25 at the Wayback Machine September 14–16, 2018 1,040 ± 3.5% 45% 41% – – 14%
Ipsos September 5–14, 2018 1,021 ± 4.0% 52% 40% – 3% 6%
Thomas Partners Strategies September 7–9, 2018 1,227 ± 3.3% 48% 40% – – 12%
Probolsky Research August 29 – September 2, 2018 900 ± 5.8% 44% 39% – – 17%
Public Policy Institute of California July 8–17, 2018 1,020 ± 4.3% 55% 31% 5% – 9%
SurveyUSA June 26–27, 2018 559 ± 5.9% 58% 29% – – 13%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times June 6–17, 2018 767 ± 4.0% 45% 28% – – 27%
J. Wallin Opinion Research/Tulchin Research March 30 – April 4, 2018 800 ± 3.7% 42% 32% – – 26%
Hypothetical polling
with Newsom and Chiang
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		John
Chiang (D) 		Gavin
Newsom (D) 		Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D-Chiang) January 27 – February 1, 2018 500 44% 30% –
Public Policy Polling February 6–8, 2015 824 30% 37% 33%
with Newsom and Villaraigosa
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Gavin
Newsom (D) 		Antonio
Villaraigosa (D) 		Undecided
J. Wallin Opinion Research/Tulchin Research March 30 – April 4, 2018 800 ± 3.7% 38% 21% 41%
Public Policy Polling February 6–8, 2015 824 – 42% 22% 36%
with Villaraigosa and Garcetti
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Eric
Garcetti (D) 		Antonio
Villaraigosa (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 6–8, 2015 824 28% 30% 42%

Results

[edit]

Newsom won the general election by the largest margin of any California gubernatorial candidate since Earl Warren's re-election in 1950. In addition to winning the traditional Democratic strongholds of the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles County, Sacramento, and North Coast, Newsom performed well in the traditionally swing Central Coast, San Bernardino County, and San Diego County, as well as narrowly winning traditionally Republican Orange County – the latter voting for a Democrat for the first time in a gubernatorial election since Jerry Brown's first re-election in 1978. Cox did well in the state's more rural areas, even flipping Stanislaus County; Stanislaus is the only county that voted for Brown in 2014 but flipped to Cox in 2018. Cox also narrowly won Fresno County and Riverside County in the Inland Empire in addition to handily winning traditionally Republican Kern County in the Central Valley.

California gubernatorial election, 2018[189]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Gavin Newsom 7,721,410 61.95% +1.98%
Republican John H. Cox 4,742,825 38.05% −1.98%
Total votes 12,464,235 100.00% N/A
Turnout 12,712,542 64.54%
Registered electors 19,696,371
Democratic hold

By county

[edit]

Blue represents counties won by Newsom. Red represents counties won by Cox.[190]

County Gavin Newsom

Democratic

John Cox

Republican

Total Votes
# % # % #
Alameda 462,558 80.6% 111,677 19.4% 574,235
Alpine 386 62.8% 229 37.2% 615
Amador 6,237 35.5% 11,356 64.5% 17,593
Butte 41,500 46.8% 47,226 53.2% 88,726
Calaveras 7,765 35.9% 13,845 64.1% 21,610
Colusa 1,999 34.7% 3,764 65.3% 5,763
Contra Costa 283,805 68.2% 132,345 31.8% 416,150
Del Norte 3,441 41.3% 4,887 58.7% 8,328
El Dorado 36,297 40.6% 53,140 59.4% 89,437
Fresno 124,332 49.1% 128,974 50.9% 253,306
Glenn 2,424 29.1% 5,908 70.9% 8,332
Humboldt 33,455 64.5% 18,418 35.5% 51,873
Imperial 20,573 61.7% 12,785 38.3% 33,358
Inyo 3,244 44.7% 4,018 55.3% 7,262
Kern 83,507 41.1% 119,870 58.9% 203,377
Kings 12,275 40.6% 17,976 59.4% 30,251
Lake 10,869 51.4% 10,280 48.6% 21,149
Lassen 2,043 22.7% 6,973 77.3% 9,016
Los Angeles 2,114,699 71.9% 826,402 28.1% 2,941,101
Madera 15,037 39.0% 23,488 61.0% 38,525
Marin 103,671 79.5% 26,750 20.5% 130,421
Mariposa 3,183 38.7% 5,043 61.3% 8,226
Mendocino 22,152 66.3% 11,255 33.7% 33,407
Merced 30,783 52.0% 28,424 48.0% 59,207
Modoc 820 23.8% 2,628 76.2% 3,448
Mono 2,706 55.8% 2,147 44.2% 4,853
Monterey 76,648 66.0% 39,516 34.0% 116,164
Napa 36,513 64.8% 19,834 35.2% 56,347
Nevada 27,985 52.9% 24,882 47.1% 52,867
Orange 543,047 50.1% 539,951 49.9% 1,082,998
Placer 72,270 41.2% 103,157 58.8% 175,427
Plumas 3,433 37.2% 5,807 62.8% 9,240
Riverside 319,845 49.8% 322,243 50.2% 642,088
Sacramento 302,696 58.8% 212,010 41.2% 514,706
San Benito 11,274 56.1% 8,815 43.9% 20,089
San Bernardino 276,874 51.5% 260,379 48.5% 537,253
San Diego 658,346 56.9% 499,532 43.1% 1,157,878
San Francisco 312,181 86.4% 49,181 13.6% 361,362
San Joaquin 101,474 52.2% 92,966 47.8% 194,440
San Luis Obispo 65,117 51.6% 61,137 48.4% 126,254
San Mateo 213,282 75.2% 70,242 24.8% 283,524
Santa Barbara 93,841 60.5% 61,300 39.5% 155,141
Santa Clara 438,758 71.4% 175,791 28.6% 614,549
Santa Cruz 91,523 76.8% 27,665 23.2% 119,188
Shasta 20,256 28.9% 49,825 71.1% 70,081
Sierra 599 35.9% 1,068 64.1% 1,667
Siskiyou 7,218 39.7% 10,946 60.3% 18,164
Solano 89,694 61.3% 56,627 38.7% 146,321
Sonoma 152,040 72.3% 58,338 27.7% 210,378
Stanislaus 77,220 49.2% 79,751 50.8% 156,971
Sutter 11,122 37.0% 18,953 63.0% 30,075
Tehama 5,756 27.5% 15,137 72.5% 20,893
Trinity 2,250 42.3% 3,075 57.7% 5,325
Tulare 42,702 42.8% 57,012 57.2% 99,714
Tuolumne 9,294 38.9% 14,580 61.1% 23,874
Ventura 171,729 55.6% 137,393 44.4% 309,122
Yolo 49,759 67.8% 23,611 32.2% 73,370
Yuba 6,903 36.0% 12,293 64.0% 19,196
Totals 7,721,410 61.9% 4,742,825 38.1% 12,464,235
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Newsom won 42 of the 53 congressional districts. Cox won 11, including four won by Democrats.[191]

District Cox Newsom Representative
1st 61.21% 38.79% Doug LaMalfa
2nd 27.88% 72.12% Jared Huffman
3rd 47.59% 52.41% John Garamendi
4th 59.49% 40.51% Tom McClintock
5th 30.0% 70.0% Mike Thompson
6th 30.63% 69.37% Doris Matsui
7th 48.04% 51.96% Ami Bera
8th 59.77% 40.23% Paul Cook
9th 46.05% 53.95% Jerry McNerney
10th 50.49% 49.51% Josh Harder
11th 29.45% 70.55% Mark DeSaulnier
12th 12.86% 87.14% Nancy Pelosi
13th 9.82% 90.18% Barbara Lee
14th 24.04% 75.96% Jackie Speier
15th 30.95% 69.05% Eric Swalwell
16th 43.91% 56.09% Jim Costa
17th 28.47% 71.53% Ro Khanna
18th 27.46% 72.54% Anna Eshoo
19th 29.68% 70.32% Zoe Lofgren
20th 29.77% 70.23% Jimmy Panetta
21st 47.88% 52.12% TJ Cox
22nd 56.81% 43.19% Devin Nunes
23rd 62.62% 37.38% Kevin McCarthy
24th 43.41% 56.59% Salud Carbajal
25th 48.94% 51.06% Katie Hill
26th 42.69% 57.31% Julia Brownley
27th 34.87% 65.13% Judy Chu
28th 24.68% 75.32% Adam Schiff
29th 22.17% 77.83% Tony Cárdenas
30th 30.09% 69.91% Brad Sherman
31st 43.4% 56.6% Pete Aguilar
32nd 34.83% 65.17% Grace Napolitano
33rd 32.3% 67.7% Ted Lieu
34th 15.5% 84.5% Jimmy Gomez
35th 34.35% 65.65% Norma Torres
36th 46.83% 53.17% Raul Ruiz
37th 13.7% 86.3% Karen Bass
38th 34.66% 65.34% Linda Sánchez
39th 50.39% 49.61% Gil Cisneros
40th 19.52% 80.48% Lucille Roybal-Allard
41st 40.62% 59.38% Mark Takano
42nd 58.8% 41.2% Ken Calvert
43rd 22.04% 77.96% Maxine Waters
44th 18.63% 81.37% Nanette Barragán
45th 50.58% 49.42% Katie Porter
46th 36.19% 63.81% Lou Correa
47th 38.3% 61.7% Alan Lowenthal
48th 52.12% 47.88% Harley Rouda
49th 48.51% 51.49% Mike Levin
50th 59.05% 40.95% Duncan Hunter
51st 32.08% 67.92% Juan Vargas
52nd 41.71% 58.29% Scott Peters
53rd 35.08% 64.92% Susan Davis

Voter demographics

[edit]
CNN exit poll by demographic subgroups[192]
Demographic subgroup Newsom Cox % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 90 10 34
Moderates 59 41 37
Conservatives 16 84 29
Party
Democrats 93 7 46
Republicans 7 93 23
Independents 53 47 31
Party by gender
Democratic men 92 8 18
Democratic women 93 7 28
Republican men 6 94 12
Republican women 9 91 10
Independent men 53 47 18
Independent women 54 46 13
Gender
Men 56 44 48
Women 65 35 52
Marital status
Married 57 43 57
Unmarried 65 35 43
Gender by marital status
Married men 53 47 35
Married women 64 36 22
Unmarried men 58 42 19
Unmarried women 68 32 24
Race and ethnicity
White 57 43 63
Black 84 16 6
Latino 64 36 19
Asian 65 35 8
Other 71 29 3
Gender by race and ethnicity
White men 54 46 31
White women 59 41 32
Black men 78 22 2
Black women 87 13 4
Latino men 61 39 9
Latino women 67 33 10
Others 67 33 11
Religion
Protestant, Other Christian 46 54 34
Catholic 56 44 21
Jewish 72 28 4
Other religion 76 24 10
No religion 79 21 31
Religious service attendance
Weekly or more 46 54 21
A few times a month 56 44 13
A few times a year 71 29 23
Never 69 31 43
White evangelical or born-again Christian
Yes 18 82 11
No 65 35 89
Age
18–24 years old 72 28 8
25–29 years old 66 34 7
30–39 years old 65 35 15
40–49 years old 58 42 14
50–64 years old 56 44 29
65 and older 57 43 27
Sexual orientation
LGBT 83 17 5
Heterosexual 58 42 95
First time voter
First time voter 69 31 18
Everyone else 58 42 82
Education
High school or less 58 42 19
Some college education 56 44 29
Associate degree 60 40 13
Bachelor's degree 65 35 24
Advanced degree 63 37 16
Education by race and ethnicity
White college graduates 59 41 28
White no college degree 55 45 35
Non-white college graduates 78 22 11
Non-white no college degree 64 36 25
Education by race, ethnicity, and sex
White women with college degrees 62 38 13
White women without college degrees 56 44 19
White men with college degrees 56 44 15
White men without college degrees 52 48 17
Non-whites 68 32 36
Family income
Under $30,000 57 43 17
$30,000–49,999 66 34 21
$50,000–99,999 55 45 22
$100,000–199,999 45 55 27
Over $200,000 41 59 13
Military service
Veterans 32 68 14
Non-veterans 64 36 86
Issue regarded as most important
Health care 85 15 43
Immigration 36 64 18
Economy 35 65 21
Gun policy 66 34 15

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
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Official campaign websites
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